Marco Van Basten has a wonderful opportunity tomorrow night to finish the job he started in Group C last week: eliminating Italy and France from Euro 2008. His Netherlands team have beaten the World Cup finalists from 2006 in their first two games and can finish them off. But only if the Netherlands lose to Romania tomorrow.
Here's the moral maze for Van Basten. If his Dutch team lose to Romania in Berne, the result of France against Italy in Zurich is immaterial.
The Romanians will go through in second place in Group C. Furthermore, having won his first two games in stunning fashion, Van Basten would doubtless like to rest his key players tomorrow. Luiz Felipe Scolari did exactly the same with Portugal on Sunday night and, because that game was a dead rubber, no-one batted an eyelid. But you just know that if the Dutch are seen to toss this game away, the French and Italians will cry foul.
What's at stake? There is an advantage for the Netherlands in making sure that Italy and France are out the picture. The way the Euro 2008 draw is set up, they could have to play them again in the semi-finals. The realist would say that the fewer higher ranked teams left in the competition the better for the Netherlands.
Romania are much less of a threat than Italy or France. Okay, so the runner-up in the Netherlands' group will have to play Spain in the quarter-finals – and on current form the Spanish will be favourites whether the opposition are France, Italy or Romania. But – from the Dutch point of view - why take the risk? They could be one Spanish collapse away from having to play a Group C team again, and they would much rather that was Romania than either of the other two.
Van Basten should ask himself this: what would the Italians do? He played there long enough, six years at Milan. Let's be honest, those arch pragmatists would wave Romania through without a hint of remorse. They would reason that they earned the right to manipulate the group however they saw fit having won their two most difficult games. Van Basten is under no obligation to field his best team against Romania. He has done the hard work in Group C – it is not his responsibility to make sure Italy and France have a fighting chance.
It is an old debate in football: whether teams should provide the stiffest opposition when there is nothing riding on a game for them. It happened in the Premier League in 2007 when Sheffield United complained bitterly that Manchester United and Liverpool fielded weaker teams against their relegation rivals. But United and Liverpool had other competitions and they needed to conserve their players' energy. Football is an instinctively selfish business. It has to be: it is about winning.
Van Basten has a great opportunity to see off two of his biggest rivals in Euro 2008 and rest his players at the same time. He should take it. There is nothing left for him to prove against Italy or France. His Netherlands team are better than them both – you need look no further than the 3-0 and 4-1 scorelines by which they triumphed over them. He has earned the right to do as he chooses against Romania tomorrow.
"But you just know that if the Dutch are seen to toss this game away, the French and Italians will cry foul" - and the English wouldn't if the same thing happened to us??
Posted by: SP | 16 June 2008 at 04:12 PM
Difficult situation: keep up the momentum or be calculating.
The things is, the way the Dutch "substitutes" have played (Van Persie, Robben), seeing some of the opportunity greedy talent on the bench (Huntelaar, De Zeeuw, Heitinga et al) and the irresistible flow the Dutch are in...
Van Basten could field a reserve team and we would still win ;-)
Go Oranje!!!!
Posted by: Rogier | 16 June 2008 at 04:18 PM
Exactly, what Domenech ignores with all his moaning is the fact that had either Italy or France beaten Romania then they wouldn't have to worry about Holland going easy on them - it's a problem of their own making because they didn't do their job. Romania deserve to go through for taking points off both World Cup finalists and I hope they do.
Posted by: ML | 16 June 2008 at 04:31 PM
Of course, Holland could lose to Romania tomorrow, then win the quarter-final, then lose to Romania again in the semis. I’m sure any team in Euro 2004 would have wanted to face the Greeks in the final, and look how that worked out.
Posted by: Paul D. Waite | 16 June 2008 at 09:30 PM
How Netherlands approach the game may depend on the appetite of the 150,000 Dutch fans in and around Bern. If they just want to party, and why not, they would happily sing and dance their way through a 2 - 1 defeat. I think VanB will go all out for a win with a (so-called) reserve XI, but if the game gets too tasty in the second half, he will be sensible and hold the Oranje back. LOve to see the faces of the French if they beat Italy...and go out. Oh, joy!
Posted by: Howard | 16 June 2008 at 10:41 PM
In sports winning is everything. Van Basten is a winner, Holland will never lose on purpose ever again (they made a 0-0 deal with Ireland in the worldcup of Italy 1990). The dutch prefer to lose beatifully above winning ugly. That's why they hardly ever win anything. I'm glad that's the way it is, or that's the way I am.
forza olanda
Posted by: Danny | 17 June 2008 at 12:07 AM
Nobody seems to remember that Holland met Romania in the qualifying group G and lost one game (in Romania, 0-1) and drew at home (0-0), so why should it be so surprising if Holland didn't make it against Romania?
Posted by: Cornelius | 17 June 2008 at 07:40 AM
Losing "on purpose" against Rumania because you think they are a weaker team would as stupid as this article;
- on face value, it is foolish assume Rumania is weaker than France or Italy (in fact it's probably better). The point about Greece by Paul is well made.
- Playing them in semi final would mean the dutch record against them would be 2 defeats and one draw... great way to make sure Rumania's confidence is sky-high
- and yes, the momentum would be broken, not even mentionning the dutchies reputation among the neutrals... if they play well and lose, fine, if they are seen to throw the macth away, the buzz will be very negative... just a question of basic fairness...
Posted by: maroule | 17 June 2008 at 11:42 AM
1) Neither France nor Italy would even consider keeping the Dutch in the tournament if they where in the Dutch current situation.
2) The Dutch replacement team is of very high quality and very eager to earn a spot in the starting-11.
3) With Spain in such a good shape it is actually in the Dutch best interest to have a very strong team play against the Spanish. A tough match for Spain would cost them more energy and perhaps a few cards.
Posted by: Iko Nal | 17 June 2008 at 12:19 PM
What a load of rubbish. WHy would Holland fear meeting France or Italy again? They have resoundingly beaten them once already.
You say "Romania is lower-rank". That's funny, Romania beat Holland in the qualifying round to be top of their group!
Posted by: Luc | 17 June 2008 at 01:17 PM
Interesting article. HOWEVER, in Euro 2000 Italy won their first two games and by the time the 3rd game against Sweden came along they had already won the group. Sweden needed to win or (from memory) draw and yet Italy honoured the competition and played rested, motivated players to win the game and knock out Sweden. Not the same dynamic as Holland knocking out Italy or France but you should not make assumptions that Italians would be so Machiavellian to do such a thing when history points to the fact that, when they were in a similar situation, they did not do so.
Anyway, Holland won, Italy won... now for the interesting part of the tournament when it's not all about pretty attacking football...
Posted by: Mario Del Duca | 18 June 2008 at 01:22 AM
"They could be one Spanish collapse away from having to play a Group C team again, and they would much rather that was Romania than either of the other two."
and
"His Netherlands team are better than them both – you need look no further than the 3-0 and 4-1 scorelines by which they triumphed over them."
You are contradicting yourself. If the Netherlands in this tournament have shown better form than both Italy and France (which I agree on), surely there is no reason to fear playing them a second time round? For the Dutch to deliberately have Romania win the game against them means they would secretly lack confidence, which is far from what anyone has just been able to see during their matches.
Posted by: Tico | 18 June 2008 at 05:32 AM
Indeed, the Dutch would rather play beautifull and lose than to play ugly and win.....
But why choose, just go on playing beatifull and beating anyone in their path?
Posted by: De Belle | 18 June 2008 at 11:51 AM