Few Sudan analysts and experts think Saturday night's daring attack on Khartoum by rebel forces was a serious coup attempt. The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) - one of the two original Darfur rebel groups - doesn't seem to have the military might to take on the Sudanese armed forces in a fair fight.
Instead, it appears as if JEM was trying to send a series of messages. One was to the government, essentially saying "we're here and we're not going away". The second message was to Khartoum's citizens.
The capital is a bubble - almost entirely cut off from the rest of the country. Throughout all of Sudan's internal conflicts no rebel group has ever tried to attack Khartoum, and its residents have ben able to comfortably ignore what its government does in its name in far-away places like Darfur. Not any more.
One analyst I spoke to in Khartoum said the attack had "really shaken people up. This is a huge statement by JEM."
The third message was to the displaced in Darfur. For some months now JEM has been the strongest military power among the rebels. But this hasn't yet translated into a massive growth in its support on the ground. Partly this is because some Darfuris are wary of the group's Islamist leadership, partly because of the loyalty that many still feel towards Abdul Wahed, the founder of the other main rebel group, the SLA, and still the most popular leader. But Wahed lives in Paris and hasn't been seen in Darfur for years.
Expect Khalil Ibrahim, JEM's leader, to use this attack to remind ordinary Darfuris that he is the only one truly fighting for their cause.
"Throughout all of Sudan's internal conflicts no rebel group has ever tried to attack Khartoum." What about the Mahdi's raid on Khartoum when it was in the hands of General Gordon in 1885.
Posted by: William Brown | Monday, 12 May 2008 at 02:43 PM
...and in 1976 there was an invasion through Libya with a direct attack on Khartoum that was repulsed by Nimeiri's army. This was not a regionally based coup attempt but had the backing of Sadiq El Mahdi and Sharif Al-Hindi, old folks within the Sudanese political elites...
Nothing completely new on earth.
The important about this attack was that it was based on the center/periphery conflict. This is new!
Posted by: Vagn Sparre-Ulrich | Tuesday, 13 May 2008 at 03:32 PM