Today in Politics: Brown humiliated in Crewe by-election
By Andrew Grice
A spectacular Tory win in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, where the man dubbed a "Tory toff" by Labour, Edward Timpson, turned a Labour majority of 7,078 into a Tory one of 7,860. The Tories expected to win but the scale of their triumph exceeds their wildest dreams. No wonder they are talking this morning about a "sea change" in politics, and the formation of a "new coalition for change." George Osborne, the shadow Chancellor, hailed it as a positive vote for the Tories.
I am not so sure. This by-election was a referendum on Gordon Brown and his ill-fated decision to abolish the 10p rate, which came to symbolise people's loss of confidence in him. The Tories deserve credit for making it the referendum David Cameron called for at the start of the campaign. Wisely, the Tory leader is not getting carried away, saying today that his party still has "a huge amount of work" to do. The wind is his sails now, and we may well look back on the Crewe by-election as the moment when his path to Downing Street became unstoppable. The pressure on Brown from his own party will intensify. He will probably get the chance to show some signs of recovery by Labour's annual conference in September. Around that time, Labour MPs and ministers will have to decide whether to turn their private grumblings about Brown into a move to oust him. The Prime Minister is on probation.
BTW, full marks to our pollsters ComRes, who called the Crewe by-election right in its survey for this newspaper last weekend. ComRes predicted the Tories would win 48 per cent of the vote, Labour 35 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent. The actual figures were 49 per cent, 31 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Some 62 per cent of those polled said they were absolutely certain to vote and more than 58 per cent did. Pretty good.
P.S. After the excitement of Crewe, I'm taking a week off to recharge my batteries. Normal service resumes on Monday week, when MPs return to Westminster after a week-long recess and it will be interesting to assess the Labour mood.
The 10p tax rate abolition isn't the only reason the UK has decided to express its displeasure with the Labour party and Gordon Brown.
Deciding to go against the advice of his drugs council was seen as a hugely arrogant decision, and it wasn't long after wards, that the Labour party crashed to its worst local by-election defeat in recent history.
Once upon a not so long ago, the cannabis debate was a faithful, toothless old tiger which could be wheeled out every time a party wanted to look tough.
But the toothless old tiger has had some new dentures fitted with the advent of the communications opportunities the Internet throws up, and as a result, its shown it can now bite back, by presenting medical evidence which clearly contradicts all of the governments anti-cannabis arguments, some of which was actually presented by the ACMD.
Even the republican US presidential candidates (Obama and Clinton) long ago realised the cannabis vote is an important demographic to secure.
But by his unilateral approach to the cannabis issue, Gordon Brown has illustrated clearly the fact he has not yet realised this, and its this naivety as a leader which see's the public looking for a change.
If this light-weight cabinet are changed and changed quickly the Labour party can still win the general election.
But who goes? And perhaps more importantly, who do they replace them with?
Canna Zine
http://cannazine.co.uk
Posted by: red dragon | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 09:17 AM
I am repeatedly surprised by the inability of the commentariat to understand the situation. It's simple: the British public now hates and despises the Labour Party, and wants it gone as soon as possible.
It's not just the 10p, or the cost of living, it's the disgust, including self-disgust, which comes from realizing we've been had, repeatedly, for over 10 years. Lies, bad faith, corruption of institutions and language. The Labour party is bankrupt ideologically, politically, financially and, therefore, ethically. The Receiver's recognition of this will follow the next election.
We'll probably not see another Labour government in our lifetime. Thank God.
Posted by: Disdain | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 09:18 AM
I wouldn't be so sure to write them off. This is indeed a bruising, but there's a long way to go until the next election. Thatcher was looking pretty ropey until the Falklands came along to save her. It only needs one major event and things can turn suddenly. Just look what happened in Spain to oust their Conservatives to let back in their left-ish wingers. Brown should not panic yet.
Posted by: hobgoblin | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 09:41 AM
Gordon Brown is not on probation at all. He has long since been found guilty. Carrying out the final sentence is delayed for two years unfortunately. Mr Grice - get out more - people are seething with contempt for New Labour: it's well and truly over.
Posted by: Rod Jones | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 09:46 AM
I don't think they will wait, they are going to slaughter him as soon as they can. He needs to go now nd if he was any sort of a man he would realise it and resign and save himself the disgrace.
Posted by: Bye Bye Brown | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 09:53 AM
The result is a damning indictment on an arrogant government out of touch with its grass roots. Brown after 10 years as No. 2 was never going to be a plausible No.1. A great result for a party whose policies are still to be identified and then must be subject to detailed public scrutiny. They will find it difficult to maintain the current momentum over the next two years. A hung parliament remains the most likely outcome in 2010.
Posted by: Windhill | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 09:57 AM
It was not only a referendum on Gordon Brown Mr Grice you are quite mistaken.
If it was a referendum at all it was on the performance of Nulab over the past ten years. Gordon Brown is just a part of the bigger problem, and the longer he stays the harder it will be for Labour to fight the next general election.
The NuLab social tinkering project has failed Labour need to regroup return to modern core values and fast.
The electorate are online and well informed and certainly not stupid, certain media and politicians need to wake up to this get ahead of their game.
Posted by: OAP | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 10:19 AM
As a lifelong Labour supporter, and someone who grew up in Crewe and Nantwich, I urge all those who want to see a Labour Government after the next election to press for Gordon Brown's immediate removal. The man is not up to the job - get him out. Now!
Posted by: James | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 10:29 AM
I can't for the life of me understand why Broon doesn't start rounding on Cameron and asking him what the Tory policy is on any given issue. This is clearly the area where there is a glaring weakness waiting to be exposed.
Cameron has made it thus far by pretending to be all things to all men and wherever possible avoiding making any commitment other than saying that "if we were in power, we wouldn't do that". Someone in the Labour Party, obviously not Broon since he seems incapable of thinking of any strategy or tactic other than
1. Lower head
2. Charge!
3. Keep blundering forward, ever deeper into the mire
needs to start asking forensic questions like, for instance, what would the Tories do about the 10p tax, what would the Tories do about EUROPE [that's one area they are trying to keep VERY quiet] what would the Tories do about this and that, and so on... and so on. Pretty soon, the rubber wheels would start to come off. Because Cameron either won't say [hedging his bets] or doesn't KNOW.
Practically, there isn't anyone else in the Labour party who could take Cameron apart, in the time left available. But those advising Broon need to start pointing him in the right direction, instead of letting him wave his clunking fists around when what's needed is not a biff on Cameron's metaphorical chin, but a sustained filleting with the inquisitional stiletto
He also needs to cut the duty on fuel. Now. Yesterday I went to Oxford for an essential meeting. I saw diesel at 128.9p per litre. Sheikh Mah-Boob and Sheikh Rattel-el-Roll aren't going to help Broon out, The GOVERNMENT need to cut the duty to stop it hurting people who have to use their cars because they have no alternative, and also to stop the haulage industry seizing up and/or increasing shop prices with the increased costs of haulage.
If they have to borrow to fund this, so be it, people would understand more and sympathise more with borrowing for this purpose than with the costs of the war in Iraq, for instance. Or just cancel ID cards, and use the money earmarked for that to bring down petrol and diesel prices instead.
Long term, we /all/ want to move to a low carbon, transition vamp, recycled, economy where we all telecottage (ooer missus) but at the moment, NOW, the way we are going, and the handbasket we are currently being conveyed in, suggest that we're going to implode before we can even start weaving the macrame for the first wind turbine...
Posted by: Ancient~Geek | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 11:04 AM
Labour are unpopular for lots of reasons. I have just come out of hospital & if family & friends want to phone me they have to pay 49p a minute. What sort of government penalises the sick?
Posted by: john knight | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 11:09 AM
The British electorate are basically Tory. What they want is lower taxes combined with scandinavian style Public Services and French pensions. According to Cameron this can all be achieved by cutting waste and encouraging volunteers to replace State Support. As the potential volunteers are mostly rich, selfish Tories who look after themselves the poor voter is doomed to vote Tory and then to suffer from Tax cuts and Public sector cuts year on year. Anybody who doesn't believe this should remember what sort of mess the Tories left in 1997.
Posted by: Bill | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 11:52 AM
if Brown & co were really interested in doing what ordinary voters wanted them to do they wd a)pull the troops out of Iraq; b)allow councils to build council houses; and c) stop privatisation. the reason they won't do that is that they are more interested in doing what big business, the CBI and R. Murdoch want. this is why they will get their ar**s kicked in 2010
Posted by: tim evans | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 01:00 PM
I used to be a subscribing member of the Labour Party and stopped my subscription to stand as an Independent in the local elections after being so unhappy with the policies, and the attitude of the local Labour team in my area.
Standing an independent candidate I did quite well in 2007. In the previous local election on May 1st the count between the Labour candidate and the BMP was just 140 votes in my ward. The Labour team at the top need to get their act together fast. They need to listen to the people and have candidates in the Commons from the real world that have done the lousy jobs, been poor, worked hard for the minimum wage and know what its like down here in the real world.
However, I must suggest that rather than suffer a repeat of the Thatcher Era I would join up again, and probably would a few more ex supporters if they did not see the Labour Government as a lot of Middle Class geeks in grey suits.
So come on Labour start showing you care and start listening and maybe you could turn things around.
Posted by: Anita cherryholme | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 01:05 PM
Yes, New Labour has made serious mistakes during the past year; not least of which may have been failing to notice and call to public attention the banks' ineptitude and cynical disregard of consequences in their lending and investment strategies. If the Treasury could not have worked that out, who could?
Another is the presidential-style premiership and obsession with image foisted on us by the Blair administration, for which I believe Gordon Brown is now paying the price. No, I am not overly impressed by his current performance but I much prefer it to that of the architect of cool Britannia who hung onto Bush's coattails, took us into an illegal war and then went
to Confession about it. And whose former deputy has in my view contributed to Labour's recent defeats by carrying on the new tradition of petty gossip, backstabbing and spite. When seeking an authoritative judgement upon the personal conduct of politicians Mr Prescott is the last person I would consult.
Current economic problems are largely outside the direct control of government, although they do have and have started to implement some measures for ameliorating them. A long-time Labour party member, I left when Blair became leader. I might now consider rejoining; if only to argue for a return to an older and more responsible style of politics.
Posted by: penny mckenna | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 02:08 PM
Windhill has it right - Gordon's a born 'Number Two'.
He's fled in terror, leaving Jacqui Smith to tell a pack of lies about their craven collapse being due to 'economic problems'. Rubbish - they got their arses kicked for being arrogant and useless. If Britain had joined the Euro when it had the chance, the pay in your paypacket would now buy 30 percent more than it does. But Gordon the Gormless was so loyal to his American neocon masters that he acted to keep Britain out of the Euro and out of Schengen.
It's the Glorious First of June next week - hunting season opens officially. Who'll bag the trophy of Britain's most hated man? As a Brit working abroad, I'm asked every day 'Why does your country work like America's gutless slave?'. It's a question I can't answer. If Labour are elected again I've got the petrol and matches and chmpagne ready, and I'll have a party to burn my passport - I'm ashamed to be British under Gutless Gordon's sham leadership.
Posted by: Neil McGowan | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 04:29 PM
Forget the 10p tax issue, it's a side show. Almost everyone has now seen through the "strong and stable" economy charade. Any economic growth the UK has experienced over the last few years has been bought on the back of massive public and private debt expansion and not improvements in productivity or economic performance.
One small example; mortgage equity withdrawl (mortgage debt expansion) has averaged some £40bn pa since 2002. At almost 3% of GDP this is uncannily close to the economic "growth" rate the UK is said to have experienced over the same period.
Some miracle economy. Public funds and spiralling private debt have been used to buy a boom and now the coffers are empty for the bust.
Posted by: Pru Dench | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 05:04 PM
No, sorry, pull the other one.
This was not just an anti-Labour vote, this indeed WAS a pro-Tory vote. The Liberal Democrats saw their share of the vote go down by a stinging 4% (seeing as they were already in third). Whatever happened to the LibDem protest vote? It evaporated this time round.
And the sheer scale of the Tory victory (a runaway 19% lead and a 17.6% swing, was it?) in a Northern urban Labour heartland means this was more than a mere warning shot for the government. People are now seriously contemplating voting for a Conservative government at the next election, and many are more than prepared to vote Tory now, as demonstrated on Thursday, and on May 1st before that.
The Liberal Democrats are flatlining, if not failing. Down in Crewe and Nantwich, down in London, the worst performance in local elections since 1998 (if I remember rightly). Britain's third party is going down the drain, albeit slower than Labour.
Posted by: Joe | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 08:06 PM
I feel genuiniely sorry for GB. He clearly has got what he always wanted and he cannot handle it. It appears to be making him ill. If he has any sense he will resign and let someone else have the job before it kills him. No job is worth being ill for.
Posted by: Michael Reid | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 08:23 PM
I am no fan of Cameron but I must admit to a feeling of schadenfreude as I read the articles on Labours demise and readers comments. Cameron is doing to Brown and New Labour exactly what Blair did to Major. Don't mention policy because the Conservatives don't need to. Anything will be better than Labour. Everything they have tried to do has been total failure. It is hard to think of anything that they have done (or said they have done) has actually made things better. The minimum wage keeps people of low educational achievemnt on slave wages and tax credits are a subsidy for salve wage employers (including a lot of household names).
The popular claims from Labour about 'education, education, education' and 'tough on the causes of crime' now ring hollow. The gloss had been well and truly knocked off before Blair departed and now with calamity Brown it has sunk to new levels. Despite all his efforts he has still not solved the problems associated with his coup de theatre at his last budget. This episode will run and run until he is forced to re-introduce the 10p tax rate.
All this without the catastrophe that is waiting in the wings when the EU Constitution is finally up and running and the New Nazis can inflict their self amending treaty on us.
Posted by: Robert | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 09:06 PM
Given the grave current economic crisis the country is facing we simply cannot afford to leave Gordon Brown in post for a further two years. He is the problem - he is NOT the solution. However, unfortunately for us mere mortals, this legend in his own mind would appear to be suffering from severe delusions of grandeur. So maybe his fate will be sealed not by the "men in grey suits" but by the "men in white coats".
Posted by: Peter Baker | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 09:52 PM
I don't know why everyone goes on about Gordon Brown - he inherited a government that was shaped by Tony Blair...the voters are not just expressing that they want GB to leave office, they are also expressing that the whole system is rotton through and through. If you look back at footage of Tony Blair in 1997 he looks like a completely dishonest arsehole - yet nobody recognised it - everyone was just loving it and him and ga ga. Now you are lal on a hate rampage against dull Gordon but hang on - you're just about to bote in the swarmiest bastard this country will ever see - let's see what is happening in a few more years. This country our Britain has MASSIVE problems and who is gonna fix them? I think we all need to clam down with the words and hatred and stop this very British merry-go-round and stop all the big words and get some action of change and address the real British problem. We have to look at OURSELVES not Gordon Brown you idiots.
Posted by: lorrie | Friday, 23 May 2008 at 11:58 PM
The Labour Party is failing because it can’t communicate honestly. It is facing complex problems out of its control – ones that the Conservatives have no hope at all of addressing.
Like the global economic malaise.
By and large labour has done all the right things for the last decade. One of which – with Brown at the domestic helm – was turning the City into a global powerhouse that retains Britain’s seat at the table.
Another was the involvement in Europe. Without assertive EU membership the UK would be an elitist and bankrupt ghetto clinging to non-existent Edwardian ideological bastions.
All the bad bits have been enthusiastically backed by the Tories. Iraq, subservience to a misguided US administration, the 10p tax band fiasco.
As well as the steady, irrevocable and vicious demonization of voiceless and vote-less segments of the population: teenagers, immigrants, the poor, and anyone without equity.
All the while, with bi and tri partisan consent, building a society based on middle class brick built cookie-cutter gated ghettos whose largely white collar denizens live off their equity and now – apparently – are facing that same choices as the those they have demonized (or just ignored) to get there.
The Tories don’t have to do anything substantive to win. All they have to do is what Brown seems to be incapable of: speak in terms that relate to the electorate whilst perpetuating New Labour ineptness under the shade of a crayon doodle tree.
The 10p tax band is a case in point. Labour could never, ever, have explained why the 10p band removal was needed other than by complex and useless explanations – that Brown is still uttering – about complex global factors. Cameron has high-jacked the issue by speaking in the terms that people being screwed by it understand: bugger the complex global economic picture, poor people have less money.
The fact that the Conservative party has an unbroken record of screwing anyone in the 10p and (now) 20p tax band is somehow lost to the lemmings thanking god that Labour may be done.
The real political story of Crewe is that faced with a perfect opportunity to fill the void the Liberal Democrats yet again failed to even register, having been drowned out by David Cameron doing the job he does best: Press Secretary for people who start sentences with “I’m not racist but …”, people who think multi-cultural means being exactly like them and the worst of all tyrants – those who cry Something Must Be Done.
In other words New Labour incarnate: murky incomprehensibility wrapped around with a veneer of opaque clarity.
The Crewe campaign on all sides can be summarized by the non-political signs that litter the British social landscape and will outlast the campaign: “Only two children allowed in shop unless accompanied by a smug paranoid elector”.
The British electorate isn’t sharply divided. It’s so sharply together Brown speaks through Cameron’s mouth and Cameron’s brain operates between Clegg’s ears.
Posted by: rustyschwinn | Saturday, 24 May 2008 at 10:23 AM