The tiny silver lining for Brown is that Labour would do even worse under Blair, Jack Straw, David Miliband, Alan Johnson, James Purnell, Harriet Harman or Ed Balls. Despite that, the poll will fuel the sense of panic among Labour MPs. The Cabinet isn't panicking yet - but Labour backbenchers most certainly are. A lot of them are quietly buying shares in Straw, believing he would take over if Brown is forced out before the next election. In Brown's absence in Belfast, Straw made an impressive, unifying, pro-parliament speech at Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral yesterday, which warmed cockles of many Labour MPs. Don't rule him out.

Apologies, I stand corrected (see comments below). It is Saint Sebastian, not Jesus. Brownites would doubtless point out that St Sebastian survived the arrows against all the odds. But he was later beaten to death.