Gordon Brown's allies are arguing that the global financial crisis would make it barmy for Labour to throw such an experienced pilot as him overboard. Brown himself is saying that the problems mean Labour must not look inwards at its annual conference starting on Saturday - i.e. must not debate his position. It would be ironic if a meltdown in the markets prevented a meltdown for Brown, but stranger things have happened. Not that Brown will be counting his chickens. A lot of Labour folk are setting him the high hurdle of victory in the forthcoming Glenrothes by-election, predicting that Brown will be forced out if Labour loses - which is very likely.
The global crisis might also help Alistair Darling survive as Chancellor. Firstly, it could be more difficult for Brown to move him from the Treasury during such a storm. Secondly, Darling's doom-laden warning two weeks ago that Britain faced its arguably its worst crisis for 60 years is now looking prophetic. At the time, it was off-message, and derailed Brown's autumn fightback. Today, in a round of media interviews, Darling was asked not whether he goofed but whether he felt vindicated. Funny old world, politics.
Mind you, Darling will not be counting his chickens either. The merger of Lloyds TSB and HBOS sound the death knell for the Bank of Scotland and threatens 20,000 jobs north of the border. Edinburgh's position as a financial centre is also under threat. And who is MP for Edinburgh South West (majority 7,242)? One Alistair Darling.
The narrative is too developed now.
Brown is not being listened to - by the vast majority of the public. He has very little political capital left. His authority is massively diminished.
The question seems to be not if but when.
It almost doesn't matter who replaces him.
Darling seems a decent sort but he is clearly only a figurehead for the Treasury. Gordon has not let go.
Darling might just hang on to his seat come the GE - but that is about it
Posted by: Simon | Thursday, 18 September 2008 at 12:40 PM
The oxbridge elties want to supress the fact that the PM is the best man to manage the economy.
Posted by: Dirty Euro | Thursday, 18 September 2008 at 10:56 PM
The PM will get no credit for this from the media. He is not an oxbridge toff. Even when the tories are 28 points ahead they do not want to cut him a break. He will not get any support for this from the media.
Watch out as the press try and destory the bank merger they would rather this nation collapsed than have a non oxbridge man in charge. The media will reip this deal apart.
Posted by: Fred | Thursday, 18 September 2008 at 11:01 PM
The oxbridge elties (?) want to supress the fact that the PM is the best man to manage the economy.
The above says it all. When asked about being the PM. The answer is invariably that Brown is the best man to run the economy. Even if that were true and I believe there are serious questions over that. Shouldn't the answer be that he is the best man to run the Country and the Chancellor the best man to run the economy even if that is as a team? When Brown took over there was comment at the time as to his style of leadership, maybe he should be questioned more in this area? If he is serious about leadership I suggest he review his advisors.
Posted by: Brian L19 | Friday, 26 September 2008 at 03:54 PM