Today's survey of almost 800 Labour members and supporters for The Independent by the labourhome website is being widely reported in the media as yet more bad news for Gordon Brown. It's another case of "one step forward, one step back" for the Prime Minister. He got (deservedly) some good headlines for oiling the wheels in the Lloyds TSB-HBOS merger and for promising a crackdown on bad practices in the City which fuelled the global financial crisis.
But the poll findings were another slap in the face for Brown and his allies: a majority (54 per cent) of those who took part in the online survey wants him to quit before the next election, and 57 per cent believe there should be a voye on whether to have a leadership election at the Labour conference in Manchester starting tomorrow. I must admit I am surprised by the results: I had expected them to show only an undercurrent of doubt about Brown because Labour members are normally pretty loyal to their leader. Their responses suggest many members have lost confidence in the PM, like some of his MPs and ministers.
The findings don't mean the conference will be a bloodbath. I expect most of the party will rally behind Brown. Rebel Labour MPs have finally got the message that it would look barmy to the voters to destabilise a PM during a global crisis. But the results suggest claims by Brown allies that his critics are a small band of disenchanted MPs --and that Labour Party members are furious about their plotting --are wide of the mark. That really is bad news for Brown.

What kind of survey is this?
Are we to believe that the 788 responders to Labourhome forum survey (conducted over a four days period) are a representative sample of all the Labour party members?
Each forum has its own particular clientele of, mostly, like-minded people, so the survey sample was biased from the start.
Moreover, the sample only represents max. 0.44 percent of the total number of Labour members (with those who believed that there should be a vote at the Manchester conference representing max. 0.25 percent of the total number of Labour party members.).
Let's not be ridiculous!
Posted by: Stan Stats | Friday, 19 September 2008 at 02:09 PM