Those are the three things the world stands on, according to a Yiddish proverb. But since the oil price has fallen from nearly $150 per barrel to less than $60, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) estimates that revenues will be $54billion short at the end of this fiscal year. Oil money constitutes the majority of Iran's income and the government's expenditure relies on this heavenly source of "black gold", as some Iranians would name it.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who promised economic transformation and spreading the wealth down to the poor, will suffer from a serious drawback when he realises that there is not sufficient cash in the safe for his adventures. And I think it's quite likely that the peak of the problem will appear just a couple of months before the elections. Given this situation it is bizarre that, instead of listening to others and putting the wrongs right, he either ignores criticism or condemns it; while silencing the critics is not off the menu. The following are just a few examples:
- At the end of his first year in office, Iranian economists sent President Ahmadinejad a letter, voicing concern over his policies. Then, nearing the end of his second year as President, 57 prominent economists sent a second letter, followed by a meeting when they repeated their criticism, openly talking about the faults of the system that Mr Ahmadinejad has implemented. No results.
- Hassan Rohani, the former chief nuclear negotiator and perhaps a hopeful in the next elections, criticised the economic policies of the government, such as an empty foreign exchange reserve, as well as the hawkish tone of Mr Ahmadinejad and his foreign policy. In return, he was criticised repeatedly in several conservative newspapers and by ministers and advisers.
- Ahmadinejad's former interior minister is going to be taken to court because he has disapproved of how decisions are made and has "given wrong statistics" in a TV programme, according to the government. Pourmohammadi was replaced by Ali Kordan earlier this year because he had disagreed with the President over a few issues.
- Inflation has been over 29 per cent in September according to the CBI. In the same month, when Ahmadinejad was in New York to talk at the UN, he sacked the head of CBI. One of Mazaheri's crimes was adopting a tight policy in order to control inflation. The other, apparently, was the banker's disapproval of the government's handling of the economy.
- And in the middle of this mayhem, the government introduced a value added tax system at a rate of 3 per cent. The traditional vessel of economy in Iran, the Bazaar, was not too happy with the decision and bazaars in Tehran, Esfahan, Tabriz and some other cities were shut down, forcing the plan to be withdrawn.
Monetary prospects are not good and they will certainly influence the choice of a nation which is getting poorer day by day, and at a soaring rate.
Long live Venezuela! Long live Bolivia! What would Iran do without these strategic allies around the corner?


How dare you criticize my beloved president. His executes policies directly from 12th Imam(PUBH). You in the west know nothing about economics. That is why you are in so much trouble As our beloved president has saif. For us everything is about Justice. You all care about money. Shame on you.
Posted by: Aziz | Monday, 27 October 2008 at 08:20 PM
Once again this writer responds to Ali with one (1) word (maybe two)
Bravo! Encore!
Posted by: Gary | Monday, 27 October 2008 at 09:00 PM
What is the Yiddish proverb u refer to?
Posted by: Mark | Monday, 27 October 2008 at 11:53 PM
Yep. But, if the price of oil goes backup towards, say, $ 60 by January and $100 about 3 months before elections?
For my part, yes, I would love to see Khatami back. That would be a repeat of the immdiate post-Bani Sadr presidency.
Posted by: Mohamed | Tuesday, 28 October 2008 at 08:32 AM
If you actually look at Ahmadinejads economic policy he's actually trying to get the money to the poor by by-passing the corrupt middle layer that has grown during Rafsanjani and Khatami's presidency - both of whom were following a Thatcherist failed economic policy of letting the rich get richer under the assumption that somehow their wealth will then trickle down to the poor in the form of jobs. Problem for Ahmadinejad is that both reformist and conservatives have vested interest in blocking his economic policies - he's left on his own apart from encouragement from Khamenei and support from the poor..
Posted by: observer | Tuesday, 28 October 2008 at 01:54 PM
I desire the day that Ahmadinejad's fans become just a little logical.the outcome of his activity is just change the situation worst that it can be.
Posted by: Saman | Thursday, 06 November 2008 at 08:45 PM
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Posted by: Jeff Paul Scam | Thursday, 05 March 2009 at 06:49 AM