After the revolution, except for two presidents, one assassinated and one sacked, all others have served for two terms. Ahmadinejad's congratulatory letter to Barack Obama has shocked some of his fellow Osoolgaras. However, if this is the strategic decision of the system, Ahmadinejad may only be paving the way for his successor to re-build relations with the United States.

As Obama's counterpart on the Iranian side, a dovish approach may better suit the purpose. Mohammd Baqer Qalibaf, current mayor of Tehran, and Ali Larijani, current speaker of the parliament, are two alternatives who may be favoured by the Right camp, Shamsolvaezin adds. These men are both closer to the centre and more pragmatic compared to Mr. Ahmadinejad. But at the same time, both of them carry a reservoir of loyalty to the Supreme Leader and the principles of the revolution. They share another similarity; both of them were defeated by Ahmadinejad in the last elections.

I think that the reformists and conservatives will make a very similar strategic move. Both camps are very likely to form a unity front, in which only one candidate is introduced. For reformists, it will be a matter of life and death if they want to stand the slightest chance.

The conservatives are also losing sleep as many factions in the right-wing camp have started voicing worryingly different selection criteria for a presidential candidate.

Another thing that will be at stake for conservatives is the popular vote that Ahmadinejad has secured in rural areas and small towns during his numerous visits across the country and by allocating resources to banks for low-interest loans.

The Right is rightly worried whether their alternative candidate would be successful in securing those votes. Yet cosmopolitan Tehran is a major battleground with over five million votes to bag. It's been a safe haven for reformists should voters show up on the day. Many people claim they're disillusioned and do not bother participating in the polls.

Whereas Ahmadinejad will not be able to count on many Tehrani votes, Qalibaf will be Right's best option in the capital, as many people are satisfied with his performance as mayor. I've even heard from people who would normally support reformists that if Qalibaf decides to run, he'll have their vote. But for the reformists the story is rather complicated. If they cannot convince Mohammad Khatami or someone equal to him in weight to run, they'll be doomed.

The trouble is that nearly no one has the same charisma, popularity or acceptance that Khatami can bring with him. That's perhaps why centrist Mr Rafsanjani, former president and an all-time player in Iranian politics, has allegedly asked Khatami to stop hesitating.

There has been speculation also that Mir Hossein Moossavi, who was Prime Minster for eight years during war, has been courted by his friends. A qualified architect and practicing painter, Moossavi has chaired the Iranian Academy of Arts for so many years that he may be criticised for being away from hardcore politics for too long. Iran has proved it never ceases to surprise.

Whether any of these calculations will bear any fruit I do not know. We may end up with another bombshell in the summer. Or who knows; maybe Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be the captain for four Obamaic years through recession, populism and conflict.