Labour didn't just win the Glenrothes by-election, it completely outgunned the Scottish National Party in the game of media expectations. Until 7.30pm last night, Labour officials were being (deliberately) gloomy about the party's prospects. Then, miraculously, they confessed they may have underestimated their support. Pull the other one. Gordon Brown, it seems, learnt a painful lesson from the Glasgow East by-election in July, when Labour talked up its chances, so its crushing defeat by the SNP felt even worse on the night.
Brown's victory in Glenrothes feels sweeter because the SNP fell into the Labour trap and expressed total confidence of victory - hardly a good recipe for getting out its vote. It is a good win for Brown, although Labour campaigned strongly on the record of the local SNP-led council as well as his role in averting a banking crisis. We shouldn't read too much into it, however. Labour won't be able to run against the Tories in the same way at the general election, when it will be the establishment party after 13 years in power. And journalists won't be so gullible next time Labour predicts it will lose a by-election. The party simply won't be believed. Who said the age of spin was dead?
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