Maybe it won't happen, maybe it's too hard, but the logic is
interesting. Some Special Advisers are kicking it around in quiet
conversations. Here's the short version.
A new Labour leader is installed by a cabinet cabal and immediately
calls a general election knowing they'll lose.
Why? To give the Tories four years of being contaminated with recession.
Once again, Conservatives are the natural party of economic
incompetence, benefit cuts, reductions in public spending, fiscal
misery. Labour emerges with a reasonable chance of winning again in the
upturn.
What’s the alternative? To go the distance to 2010 and suffer a
landslide that sees off 20 ministers, 200 MPs and takes a decade to
recover from.
How does it come about? The central, shadowy player is Jack Straw. He
makes a proposition to the young contenders for the top job. “Let me be
the caretaker leader. I will lead the party into the election. I will
take onto myself all the poison of defeat. Immediately afterwards, we
will have a full-scale internal election for leader in the normal
democratic way and the winner will start off untainted by defeat.”
Who does the actual knife work? Geoff Hoon, the chief whip takes the bad
news into Gordon Brown. He is rewarded with the Foreign Office (oh, the
triumphant return).
What's in it for Jack Straw himself? Even if his tenure is a mere three
months, he will always be "the former prime minister". That has certain
financial and status benefits that last the rest of his life, and is the
only successful end to a cabinet career. He's also the one who saves the
party from oblivion.
NB: The one thing that makes Tories go white with anxiety is the idea of
a general election this year. It would wreck their entire political
timetable. Another argument in favour of it.
Of course, there are endless difficulties in execution and presentation.
But where there's a will there's always a way.
That is stark raving bonkers. Thatcher took over and had a massive depression where we lost 2% og gdp in one quarter. Yet she kept the tories with major in power for 17 years. They are stark raving bonkers to think of giving up power. The tories would just blame any recession on labour even if it lasted 7 years.
Posted by: dirty european socialist | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 10:57 AM
Jack Straw is utterly mad then.
The alternatives in reality are;
1. Keep in power for as long as possible and hope by 2010 the economy does improve and win. Which is what nearly happened between 1969 and 1970. When we went into the 1970 election 10 points in the lead after having massive deficits in 68. OK we still lost but that was just another shock uptrun that stoped the come back.
2. Or the incredibly moronic strategy of deliberately holidng an election now losing by a massive landslide now and being out of power for 10 years.
The tories will be able to spend the next 8 years in government blaming any problem on labour. So it is totally mornic strategy to say oooo we will give thm the blame for economy. Nope they will spend their time in government blaming us. The tories would lo ve an election now. What they fear is we go as long as possible and then we make a come back.
Jack Straw is starkers.
Remember Mrs Thacther took over with an ecnomic depression at the start of her reign. Now how much damage that do to her. Eh! she stayed as PM for 11 years.
Posted by: dirty european socialist | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 11:05 AM
Your scenario assumes that the electorate have the memory of goldfish.
The Conservatives will be seen as the saviours of the economy, dealing with Labour's mess and the Labour party will be tainted with leaving the country in the lurch.
Posted by: Richard Freeman | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 11:10 AM
Excellent, bring it on.
Posted by: Cheered up no end | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 12:12 PM
Labour DO NOT HAVE THE MONEY FOR AN ELECTION
End of story
Posted by: Faux Cu, Palais Bourbon | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 01:22 PM
You are quite right Thatcher and G. Howe were an economic disaster. Stoking up inflation by doubling VAT (remember Tories increase taxes). What saved Thatcher was the Falklands.
I do think something has to happen and the scenario above sounds more likely than most I have heard. However if Gordon goes in, say September, then an election in October would be favourite but an announcement then of a spring election would give the Labour party a little time to twist the Unions arms for some money to fund the campaign.
Posted by: Stephen Walkley | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 01:22 PM
But we would not win. What is the point in holding an election we cannot win. If we wait two years we might win. If we have an election now we will not win. And there could be another falkland war type issues for the tories to cling to power in, even under the fake idea that this recession will last 6 years. Most experts say the economy will pick up in 2010. So the tories would just take over and have got the credit the economic recovery after just couple of years of hardship, they would be destined to be in power for decades. Straw is being madder than a mad hatter. We should continue for the full term. These people might never get back into power again,. Just so Jack Straw can add this office to his CV. OK fair play to him for putting his carrear first. That is what every politcian at the top does. But we should not fall for this. It is madness.
Posted by: dirty european socialis | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 02:06 PM
> Jack Straw is starkers.
That's a scary thought...
Posted by: Andy | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 04:11 PM
It's an interesting theory but I just can't see it happening. I would prefer instead for GB to stand down and Alan Johnson be elected on the basis that he will call an election within three months of taking office. This would allow him to go to all the donors who have deserted Brown and scrimp together a half-decent war chest. Labour would most likely lose the election but Johnson would stay on and ensure that the party rebuilds in opposition before handing power onto a younger leader.
BUT...Labour Party SpAds and their ilk are mad if they think that getting rid of Gordon will solve all their problems. The major problem Labour has to overcome is that they have alientated so much of the population with daft policies (health services professionals and police over pay and reform; liberals over 42 days and Iraq; core viote over privisation of public services). The real challenge to the party is to go back to the sensible centre-left agenda of 1997, which was radical but pragmatic.
The best thing the party could do is ger rid of most of the current SpAds, who are mostly right-wing and completely out of touch with real people. They should also kick out nutters liek Compass and Tories like Progress.
Posted by: BobbyJ | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 04:23 PM
Why should Jack Straw become the country’s shortest serving PM when there’s already a PM around who could call an election and lose? It seems to me that Brown has much more to gain in calling an election than anyone else around at the moment. Better to go down fighting, with dignity, than to be ousted by your cabinet, only to be replaced by a patsy who then loses a ridiculous election anyway. Plus, as Faux Cu mentioned, Jack Straw would not have any more money than Gordon does.
What an over-complicated and inane idea.
Posted by: Stu | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 05:26 PM
Hey, how dumb is the electorate supposed to be in this scenario?: "Once again, Conservatives are the natural party of economic incompetence, benefit cuts, reductions in public spending, fiscal misery. Labour emerges with a reasonable chance of winning again in the upturn." Perhaps, the lefties at the BBC might push this line, but there's still a solid rump of the electorate who haven't been brain washed in Labour's comprehensive schools .... and will conclude that much public spending was sheer waste, many benefits were counter-productive, and that 1997-2008 was a period when the UK had the most abysmally incompetent government ... so much so that Labour deserves to be banished for at least a generation.
Posted by: John Gibson | Thursday, 10 July 2008 at 11:17 PM
Interesting to note that even the Indy is now able to recognise what an appalling pigs ear their darling NuLab pals have made of this country.
The golden and solid economy they inherited is now shredded, and not just because of the global credit crunch either. NuLab has over-taxed, over-spent and generally mis-managed literally billions of pounds on all manner of hair brained leftist schemes, from hundreds of thousands of public sector jobs for the boys and girls and NHS computer systems that cost enough to buy a third world country (and still dont work properly) to benefit payout bonanzas and globe trotting war-mongering that we neither needed nor could afford.
Genuine and authentic old Labour Tax and Spend.
My, how you lot loved it. How you lapped it up. 'In power for thirty years', you crowed.
Yet now you actually have the brass neck to publicly propose a scheme that is intended to land all Gordon and Tonys self-made shit in someone elses lap, purely for the purposes of getting Labour firstly off the hook for their abject mis-management and secondly back into 'power'at the earliest opportunity, all on the entirely self-serving and self-denying alter of ducking your responsibilities and of evading accountability for your actions.
Spineless, cowardly bastards.
Naturally, this is being proposed via the tried and tested spin machine, the purveyor of yet more deliberate sleight of hand:
'To give the Tories four years of being contaminated with recession. Once again, Conservatives are the natural party of economic incompetence, benefit cuts, reductions in public spending, fiscal misery...'
Do I hear concerns about the mess your 'socially concious' pals have got us into? About the destroyed credibillity of this country's foreign standing? Of the absurd levels of borrowing embraced by Prudence Brown the 'Iron Chancellor' to prop up his reckless spending spree of other peoples money? Do I hear contrition at a blatantly illegal and shameful intervention in Iraq, (ironically on the day news breaks that Gordon may be despatching yet more army resources on another wild goose chase, this time in Africa)? Funnilly enough, no, I don't hear so much as a pip-squeak of dissent or contrition.
To think there are still left-wing lying spinning eco-fruitcake power junkies actually still wondering why their pet party and the tactics they use are so loathed.
Your party has regally shafted this country and it will not lightly recover. That is NuLabours legacy.
Unbelievable.
Posted by: Mr DG | Friday, 11 July 2008 at 10:24 AM
It's the old "deckchairs on the Titanic" drama again. Let this political ship go down--it's not carrying anything useful. The whole political systemic framework is creaking and leaking and was never built to carry a people's democracy. FPTP electoral system; 3-line whips; A rigged House of Lords; generations of effete family representatives as MPs; no written constitution; no independent judiciary; no Bill of Rights--and now abandonment to the Market of the EU, without a Social Charter--and no referendum to allow refusal. Let her tip ass-up and take Royal prerogative with her.
Posted by: Diogenes | Friday, 11 July 2008 at 10:54 AM