By Guest Author Alex Hilton, Editor of Labourhome and Recess Monkey
A lot of people are writing today about Gordon Brown's likely longevity after the Glasgow East by-election. But frankly, it doesn't matter whether Labour have Brown, Miliband or even draft Barack Obama to take us into the next General Election. The challenges remain the same, and time is short.
David Cameron isn't an overwhelming adversary. He isn't widely loved or trusted: he's not a Tony Blair circa 1996.
However, he is a good communicator and he is willing to sit back and take advantage of our failings. His lead in the polls is commanding, but it's still soft. People could come back to Labour if we give them a reason to do so.
It's the vision thing. Labour needs to show the country that we're not just focused on the next day's headlines: we need to be the purveyors of a vision of Britain in ten years time. There have already been glimpses of this. James Purnell's recently published green paper on welfare reform really does seek to tackle a long unaddressed problem in a compassionate manner. But where is the vision elsewhere in government?
We have large nettles to grasp on energy, pensions, social care, the cost of public sector services and the public perception of crime. If we look at an even broader perspective, we need to escalate social mobility and halt the decline of public engagement in politics.
And all these issues can be taken on simultaneously. None of these problems is unsolvable. With the right people, we could have plans ready in three months or so. We could decide that no more children will grow up in ghettos; we could invest in intelligence based policing; we could plan for an international renewable power grid; we could propose an electoral system where people's votes actually count.
Our withering democracy really is part of the problem. It is said that in Glasgow East, Labour hadn't canvassed voters for years, taking this safe seat for granted. This is what parties do in safe seats. Only exceptional MPs prioritise campaigning in safe seats because there are so many other things to do. We have a system that forces parties to focus their efforts on 50-100 seats, We have a system that tells people there's no point in voting if you don't live in one of those seats, a system that contributes to young people feeling they have no influence over the society to which they are subject.
It isn't just public democracy and engagement that is suffering. We need to get our own house in order inside the Labour Party. Our structures divorce members from the running of the party and from practically influencing policy; and the half-hearted attempts to use the internet to engage with members or the public are mostly risible.
We need to get back to our basic principles. We are the party of the people. We are the party that seeks to end poverty. Our message is inspirational, so let's stop messing around and get on with it.
If Labour was truly committed to ending poverty, then Glasgow East would not be in the appalling state it is now. They have been 'represented' by Labour for 90 years. They have been 'governed' by a Labour government for the past decade. Labour has failed Glasgow East.
Labour has failed our country.
Some humility at this time would be welcome - rather than the usual 'we will listen and learn' or 'we must go back to our roots'.
Change is needed. Labour does not seem able or willing to deliver that.
Posted by: Simon | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 12:20 PM
"David Cameron isn't an overwhelming adversary. He isn't widely loved or trusted: he's not a Tony Blair circa 1996."
Wishful thinking on the author's part. David Cameron has made quite an impression on many traditional labour voters, I can assure you.
Anyway, let's have a general election and find out exactly.
Posted by: stanley | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 01:04 PM
Labour has treated Scotland like a rotten borough and invested little real effort to address the main issues in the country.
That is why the SNP have done well, they appear to care, have new ideas that might work and, more importantly, reflect change.
I believe that SNP will, in time, fail but until then Labour in Scotland are in for a dreadful time.
The same criticisms can be applied to Labour in Wales.
Without these secure flanks then Labour in Westminster would have a major problem anyway even without their dire opinion polls in England.
Ignore voters and they will ignore you, irritate voters and they will vote against you.
As a life long Conservative I have seen what happens.
There is no quick fix and the next election looms.
Posted by: julian | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 01:49 PM
//We need to get our own house in order inside the Labour Party. Our structures divorce members from the running of the party and from practically influencing policy; and the half-hearted attempts to use the internet to engage with members or the public are mostly risible.//
Without doubt the truest words spoken. Communicate the good (and there is much to communicate) and deal with the bad with reactive policies for the times, as well as working to a longer vision.
Posted by: Labour Matters | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 02:02 PM
Interesting article but yet again a Labour supporter makes the fatal mistake of underestimating David Cameron. This guy is a Leader - it showed a year ago at the Party Conference when faced with disaster he came out fighting and looked as though he was enjoying it - something that Brown(unlike Blair) never seems to be able to portray. Brown blinked first - the Country sat up and took note that the legendary clunking fist was a soft pussy cat paw!.
Cameron is a serious politician who is running rings round a man who has been in Parliament 18 years longer than him. Years ago the Tories made the same foolish mistake of snearing at Blair - remember "Bambi" and when that didn't work we had the "Demon Eyes" nonsense. From Browns speech today we can all see that his tactics will be as stupid and leaden footed as the Tories in 97 i.e the charge that Cameron is no more than a "shallow salesman" - which in a way sort of insults the electorates intelligence when you think about it as though we are all stupid and just vote on presentation. Failing that its a load of scare stories about massive spending cuts to fund huge tax cuts for the super rich at the expense of the poor - the very thing which Cameron has (at great political cost to himself amongst his own Party) set his face against. As for a charge of robbing the poor to help the better off, that truly does not sit well coming from a man who brought us the 10p tax debacle.
Posted by: Peter Buss | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 02:02 PM
You keep saying you are "listening".
But you aren't *hearing*.
If you think the public wants your idiotic ID Cards, Iraq War, Afghan War, bootlicking of American neocons, warmongering with Russia, warmongering with Iran, bootlicking of Israeli Zionists, bashing of public service pay awards, cover-ups of Police racism and incomptence, 600+ laptops missing from MoD, then the only constituency that will ever return a Labour MP is Cloudcuckooland West.
Face it, Alex - you don't give one single STUFF about voters, or what they want, do you?? You're just looking for the first convenient lie that will paper over the cracks and get you back into power next time.
Why do you think you've lost three by-elections on the trot? Could it be because the public have realised that Gordon IS a moron, that your policies are crap, and you are nothing but gutless yea-saying patsies for the American neocons you'd so much love to become??
Try doing these things:
# take the poster of Donald Rumsfeld off the wall in your office
# grow a spine of your own, instead of borrowing one from America
# develop a taste for healthy and nutritious non-GM food. It's really much tastier than American bootleather, believe me.
Posted by: Neil McGowan | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 02:27 PM
"We need to get back to our basic principles. We are the party of the people. We are the party that seeks to end poverty..."
Umm, not exactly. You are the party of the people who want to be given other people's money. You are the party that seeks to end poverty the Marxist way. You are the party who have taken eleven years to put the 'principles' you talk about into practice, and signally failed. Internally, you are collapsing. What possible reason could you give the voters to re-elect you?
Posted by: Dodgy Geezer | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 02:55 PM
Re: d.e.s. "The vote was fixed."
I somehow got the same impression. The whole affair, starting with David Marshall's 'resignation', the difficulties in finding a Labour candidate, all the way through to last night's unexpected results, seems almost engineered. As if somebody, desperate to topple Brown, brought about this by-election as a pretext.
Posted by: martin | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 04:10 PM
There is no "road to rcovery" for this governmen - for "New Labour": they'll go at the next election and it will be a long, long time before they ever return. I'm 54, probably a natural Labour voter under normal circumstance - but this has been the worst government in my lifetime: I'd never vote for the party again because of these people - an arrogant bunch of cheats and liars! I've grown to hate New Lab our with a passion.
Posted by: Robert | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 04:34 PM
I agree with Martin, that the whole by election did seem a pretty odd situation to have. Why would anyone in their right mind give up being an MP especially if they had made a fortune from being an MP. The media should look between the lines. Why di this by election happen and the result seems fishy like salmon(d).
Posted by: dirty european socialist | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 04:47 PM
You just don't get it do you? We continually voted for Labour throughout the Labour years because we believed Tony Blair's rhetoric. You had an overwhelming majority and what did you do with it? (Fox hunting comes to mind..) Worked as hard as you could to appease Murdoch, overcomplicated and burdened the country with more taxes, red tape, and some very daft and unnecessary legislation. There was no true ideology, or even methodology, it was just about appearances and trying to please everybody. The result: noone is happy and a chance to make Britain a more progressive and liberal society wasted.
So when you talk about a vision for the next 10 years I have to laugh.
Posted by: Alex | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 06:26 PM
I'm 57 and this is the most corrupt and incompetent government of my lifetime, in spite of stiff competition..
Gordon Brown has eviscerated the economy, which is going into recession with far worse finances than in the 1990's.
Corruption is rife with MP's and MEP's blatantly stuffing expenses and huge sums spent on quangoes, with the latest being the appointment of a Barclay's reject to Northern Rock for only £1million.
The arrogance and contempt in the suggestion that this can be turned around in three months beggar's belief.
Posted by: David Martin | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 08:31 PM
The MP who took the cash Mr Conway was a tory.
Posted by: dirty european socialist | Friday, 25 July 2008 at 10:15 PM
It's not 'the vision thing' it's the sheer breathtaking incompetance not just of Gordon Brown but of most of his Ministers. I would not employ either him or any of them in any company I owned. It's the spin (lie, lie & lie again). It's the unwillingness to listen, it's the refusal to take responsibility or be accountable (are we ever going to get any accountability from Ed Balls over the SATS fiasco? In more honourable times that would have been a cause for resignation). It's the police state surveillance, it's ID cards, crime (on the up & up), education (no coherent policies), immigration, tax, 'green' taxes that are merely a hypocritical fund raising con - it's the whole of NuLAbour & their policies - rubbish, rubbish & more rubbish.
Posted by: HJS | Saturday, 26 July 2008 at 08:58 AM