In the ComRes poll in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday the Conservative lead stretches to 11 percentage points. This is up from eight points in the last ComRes poll for the daily Independent on 28 October, and up from nine points from last month's IoS poll (19 October).
Conservative 43% (+4)
Labour 32% (+1)
Lib Dem 12% (-4)
Other 13% (-1)
(Change since last ComRes for Independent in brackets.)
Our poll is in contrast to YouGov in The Sunday Times tomorrow, which gives the Tories a five-point lead, the narrowest of any pollster since April.
We also asked respondents if they agreed or disagreed with the following statements:
Gordon Brown should take most of the blame for the rising unemployment rate
Agree 37%
Disagree 57%
Tax cuts should be paid for by the government spending less rather than borrowing more
Agree 75%
Disagree 17%
The Conservative team around David Cameron is lightweight
Agree 48%
Disagree 35%
The Labour Party will lose the next election regardless of who leads it
Agree 54% (68% in July)
Disagree 35% (22% in July)
Mixed news, therefore: Brown is not blamed for rising unemployment and the Tories are seen as lightweight. But people do not like borrowing for tax cuts and still think that Labour is heading for defeat.
Full tables at ComRes, who telephoned 1010 GB adults on 12–13 November 2008.
I imagine your lightweight question will get you just the answer you want it to!
Posted by: abc | Saturday, 15 November 2008 at 03:45 PM
@abc - because they are and they know it. Osborne is telling people Labour are pursuing a scorched earth policy because they know they will lose the next election...talk about hubris.
The Conservative lead was 13% before Glenrothes and 6% after it, is the answer to Rentoul's question.
Posted by: Louise | Saturday, 15 November 2008 at 04:04 PM
George Osborne is quite right and its time the British people are reminded that Gordon Brown is one of the principal authors of the current world economic crisis with his crazy borrow to spend economy of the past decade. Any economy built on rising house prices pushing up retail sales was bound to end in disaster. The former US Federal Reserve Chairman has admitted his part in the disaster but Brown seeks to blame everyone but himself.
Posted by: Mark | Saturday, 15 November 2008 at 07:00 PM
Post this poll now!! Even the Yougov one is out!
Posted by: Romeo | Saturday, 15 November 2008 at 08:03 PM
@ Louise
ABC is quite correct. The question about the Conservaitves being lightweight is what is know in the market research world as 'leading' and so pointless.
For example if you asked if the Labour cabinet were lightweight, you might get a similar response. What does 'lightweight' actually mean? It may mean they don't get heard in the press much? And what is 'the Cameron team' - the party of the shadow cabinet?
As for your comment on the Conservatives losing the election you are just foolish. Brown is ruining the economy and Osbourn is warning you. Stick you head in the sand if you want to but it will be worse for you.
Posted by: Miranda | Saturday, 15 November 2008 at 09:12 PM
Why don't the Conservatives get more active, more angry, more on the people's side? Cameron could demand total financial regulation, a windfall tax on hedge funders and investment banks. He could beat up on the water, electricity, gas and telephone companies for overcharging, tell the high street banks to lengthen mortgage facilities instead of repossessing people's houses (what is the point of repossession if they can't sell what they repossess?), and tell his party to shut up about Osborne. All of these things would enjoy huge public approval and up would go the ratings again. Why are our politicians so thick? Who knows? In any event, there's too much floating like a butterfly in the opposition and not enough stinging like a bee. Worse luck.
Posted by: john problem | Sunday, 16 November 2008 at 09:46 AM
I don't think it is going to make one iota of difference who's in/up or who's out/down as we are in a quite serious recession and none of them, labour, tory or libdem are in control or know what to do.
Go take a look at the CVs of our illustrious leaders and weep, not one of them has the background experience to resolve our, let alone the world's financial prolems. All of them are the intellectual equivelant of middle managers trying to waffle their way out of a problem and hoping that no one will realise that they are responsible for it in the first place.
We will eventually emerge from this crisis a much different and possibly chastened world but the likes of Brown, Cameron and Osbourne will still be there proclaiming "It was us wot saved the economy"!
Posted by: flipped | Sunday, 16 November 2008 at 10:44 AM
Opinion polls seem to be cherry-picked at the moment for political advantage.
Alongside is a media attack on Osborne which seems relentless and well orchestrated which is somewhat strange given the fact the guy is just doing his job and voicing reasonable concerns.
There seems to be a tad too much internal politicking going on and that loses sight of the real issues facing the real economy.
The dogged determination of Brown to recklessly borrow his way out of recession, leaving a legacy of debt, should be a gift to the voice of financial sense and sensibility regardless of party politics or political infighting.
Maybe the country isn't ready for a Captain Sensible (of whatever political party) and is happy with Brown's Flash Gordon.
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/are-we-ready-for-captain-sensible.html
Posted by: the orange party | Sunday, 16 November 2008 at 12:49 PM
Flipped has got it about right, I think. Anything more on these insubstantial matters can be said while knitting.
Posted by: Diogenes | Monday, 17 November 2008 at 07:15 AM
The Ipsos Mori poll reprted on the BBC tonight has Labour only 3 points behind the Tories so John Rentoul's claim that Labour's recovery is fading is somewhat suspect. Will he ever reconcile himself to Blair's defenestration? It's really boring reading his stuff week after week (if one can be bothered to) to the effect that Gordon's rubbish compared to Tony and is bound to lose to Cameron come the next election. Surely the Independent can commission more mature coverage of the political situation.
Posted by: William | Tuesday, 18 November 2008 at 06:45 PM