By Raymond Whitaker

Yet more bloodshed in Afghanistan: an American soldier and seven Afghan civilians killed in a suicide bombing in the east of the country, two Royal Marines lost in a vehicle bombing in southern Helmand province. It seems that the two extra brigades President-elect Barack Obama is pledged to send – around 7,000 troops, bringing the total US contingent close to 40,000  – cannot arrive too soon. General David Petraeus, the new chief of US Central Command, is said to want a “surge” of 15,000 to 20,000 extra troops for Afghanistan.

Inevitably, the call has gone out for other Nato countries to send more troops as well. But if past experience is any guide, it will go unheeded: other countries might even seize the chance to reduce their own commitment.

A close adviser to Obama reacted indignantly when I put this suggestion to him, replying: “I find it hard to believe that our allies would take it upon themselves unilaterally to undermine our new President, who is probably the most popular person in the world.”

By Raymond Whitaker

As John Dickerson points out in Slate, if Barack Obama loses tonight it will be the biggest disaster in the history of polling and punditry. He quotes the Washington Post, which reports that not one of 159 national polls conducted in the past six weeks has put John McCain ahead. Realclearpolitics, the go-to website for US election obsessives, averages the polls. Its latest figures put Obama ahead by 7.8 points; McCain has not led in its tracking average since 16 September.

I personally think there is no reason for all the butterflies among Obama’s supporters, and that it will quickly become clear, once the polls close, that their man has won decisively. But don’t quote me if I’m wrong …

By Raymond Whitaker

The US raid into Syria from Iraq, which Pentagon sources say killed a senior al-Qa'ida militant, Abu Ghadiya, has been linked to a string of recent missile strikes, and at least one ground attack, on al-Qa’ida and Taliban targets in Pakistan by US forces based across the border in Afghanistan. On BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the former US assistant secretary of defence, Richard Perle, was asked whether this was the Bush administration stepping up the "war on terror" while it still had the chance.

But there is a difference: Syria, in Washington’s eyes, is a fully paid-up member of the "Axis of Evil". Pakistan is supposed to be on our side.

By Raymond Whitaker

As if things could not get any worse in Zimbabwe, the country has a worsening cholera epidemic.

According to the brave and scrupulously accurate Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights (ZADHR), the disease, caused by contaminated water, is spreading in many "high-density suburbs" (formerly segregated townships) around Harare, the capital, and in three districts of Mashonaland West, a province which saw some of the worst violence during this year's elections. There have been 27 deaths in the past month.

By Raymond Whitaker

The political shock-waves from the removal of Thabo Mbeki as president of South Africa continue to reverberate. Today the ruling African National Congress is meeting to decide what to do about a former chairman of the party, Mosiuoa “Terror” Lekota, suspended after declaring that he might leave the ANC and join others in forming a new political party. Mr Lekota resigned as defence minister three weeks ago, after Mr Mbeki was ousted, and other Mbeki loyalists could follow him out of the ANC.

So is this the break-up of the party that has been predicted ever since it came to power in 1994?