What 24 Hour Party People tells us about Pep Guardiola’s cycle at Man City

A 22-point deficit in the Premier League to leaders Liverpool has ramped up the pressure on the Spaniard ahead of the final year on his contract at the Etihad

Pep Guardiola is struggling to recreate City’s form of last season (Getty)

There is a scene in 24 Hour Party People, the 2002 film about Manchester music impresario and local television newsreader Tony Wilson, that feels relevant to the problems of one of the city’s football managers at present. Wilson, played by Steve Coogan, is walking through an underpass when he stops to give a homeless man some change to buy a cup of tea. In return, as he walks away, he receives a philosophical meditation on the immutable relationship between success and failure.

“I am Boethius, author of The Consolation of Philosophy,” shouts the homeless man, played by Christopher Eccleston. “It’s my belief that history is a wheel. ‘Inconstancy is my very essence’, says the wheel. ‘Rise up on my spokes if you like, but don’t complain when you are cast back down into the depths. Good times pass away, but then so do the bad.” And then, in an exaggerated Mancunian accent: “Mutability is our tragedy, but it is also our hope. The worst of times, like the best, are always passing away.”

The scene was drawn from Wilson’s life. He would recommend Boethius to friends of his who were suffering with depression and he took solace himself from the philosopher’s assurance that this too shall pass. Whether Pep Guardiola is aware of either Boethius or Wilson’s work, we do not know – he does appear fond of Puma’s Haçienda-inspired Manchester City sportswear range, at least – but he will have spent these last few difficult days ruminating on a similar theme.

Up until six months ago, Guardiola’s time in Manchester had been a tale of gradual but unbroken improvement. He always saw his difficult first season as a year zero, and it is now widely characterised in that way, whereas the unparalleled dominance of the two campaigns which followed provide the true image of his City. Even if last season’s total of 98 points fell short of the century managed the previous year, it was achieved while competing against a team that, Guardiola admits, is the most formidable he has ever faced in his managerial career.

And it should be said that, despite the current 22-point deficit to Liverpool, this could still be a defining season in Guardiola’s career. To salvage it, he must win City’s first and his third Champions League but, before that, he must come through a two-legged last-16 tie with Real Madrid. At the time of the draw in December, City were well-fancied to progress and they remain favourites to lift the European Cup in Istanbul come May, but those odds are drifting with every poor domestic result.

What exactly is going wrong? There has been a lot of talk about missing chances over the past week after that profligate display away at Tottenham Hotspur but, according to Opta’s underlying statistics, City are converting so-called ‘big chances’ at practically the same rate as last season. Penalty-taking is a concern, with three of six missed, but those three penalties alone can hardly account for a 22-point gap and the failure to keep any sort of pace with Liverpool since November.

The ease with which opponents have managed to break through City’s lines is more worrying. That was not happening to the same degree last season, largely because midfield was patrolled by the uncompromising Fernandinho. His move into the centre of defence and Rodri’s struggles to adapt to the specific demands of being Guardiola’s holding midfielder have left the champions vulnerable. The opportunities they are giving up are dangerous, too. Compared to the same stage last season, City have conceded a similar number of chances but significantly more expected and actual goals.

The long-term injuries to Aymeric Laporte and Leroy Sané have played a part, of course, though it is worth remembering that Sané may well have left last summer if not for the knee ligament injury suffered in the Community Shield, while a fit Laporte would have still played without a trusted, established partner in the centre of defence. The Bernardo Silva tweet controversy all the way back in September affected the dressing room too. Bernardo’s own form has only shown signs of recovering over the past couple of months, though he remains a long way off the consistency of last season.

But then there is the idea that this is all simply the part of a natural cycle – the turning of Boethius’ wheel, one phase of Guardiola’s City ends and another begins. That would put the Catalan in the awkward position of starting a transition that he may not finish. Guardiola’s contract expires in the summer of 2021. There is no indication he will leave before then, even after his wife Cristina and their youngest daughter returned home to Barcelona last year. He has always insisted he will honour the extended terms signed in 2018 after the first league title win.

Pep Guardiola appears dejected after City succumb to Spurs (EPA)

Any rebuild is complicated, though. No replacement for Vincent Kompany was sought last summer because for every overseas player City could buy, one had to be sold. David Silva’s departure at the end of the season will ease things a little, and Nicolas Otamendi is among those who could follow him out the door, but this is not an easy squad to overhaul quickly. John Stones, for example, is homegrown. Benjamin Mendy’s injury record would be hard for any suitors to ignore. Allowing Joao Cancelo to leave would be difficult after a £60m signing less than 12 months ago. Gabriel Jesus has occasionally underwhelmed but is he worth letting go ahead of what could be Sergio Aguero’s final season?

In any case, Guardiola has done nothing like this before. His wildly successful four years at Barcelona and three years at Bayern Munich may have come with their own frustrations and regrets but they also ended at a natural point, with his successors overseeing the next phase. If 2020-21 is to be his last campaign in Manchester, it would undermine any rebuild beginning this summer, no matter what succession plan was in place. Guardiola may suddenly realise the reason why this fifth year at a club was, for him, unprecedented.

At some point, fortunes will change. Guardiola is too good a manager not to come out of this from the other side. That upturn may arrive quickly, especially if Madrid are the first of several beaten on the road to Istanbul, but City’s issues are real and they make any redemptive Champions League run unlikely. Starting with West Ham’s visit to the Etihad on Sunday, these next few weeks and months will tell us whether Guardiola’s spoke on the wheel is beginning to rise again or only just starting to fall.