Brilliant column by Daniel Finkelstein, or Lord Finkelstein as we shall have to get used to calling him, in today’s Times (pay wall). About a book called The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election, by John Sides and Lynn Vavreck.
It recounts an experiment in election forecasting, which is relevant to some of [...]
I wrote in The Independent on Sunday yesterday about predictions of the next election, again, prompted by the assertion by Nick Harvey, the Liberal Democrat MP (pictured), that “Labour has already won.”
One of the axioms on which he builds this fallacy is this: “It’s very difficult to see why anyone would vote Tory next time who [...]
I return to the subject of “iron laws” in politics in my column in The Independent on Sunday today. For all those who so enjoyed the Electoral Calculus chart, which I used, with permission, a while ago, here is an update.
This, the most complicated chart that is actually quite useful, plots the opinion-poll ratings of [...]
I fear I may have oborned* this one. I write in The Independent on Sunday about why I think the Conservatives are likely to win the 2015 election. “From now on, the facts of economic life are Conservative.”
As pointed out by my esteemed colleague Tom Peck, this contradicts the Electoral Calculus Monster Chart of Polls [...]
Philip Collins in The Times (pay wall) says: “I was always wary of asking for clarity from Mr Miliband. I had more than a suspicion that I would then pine for the days of indecision.”
He reports that an anonymous Labour former minister has “gone from a state of fearing that Labour would not win to a [...]
Here, again, is the terrific Chart of the Year produced by Electoral Calculus for Matthew Holehouse of the Telegraph. I posted it a few weeks ago, but I am reproducing it with the correct credits and with a new, improved commentary.
Hopi Sen’s brilliant rebuttal of those who want Labour to prepare for a hung parliament by identifying policies it would be prepared to abandon in coalition reminded me of a similar piece of writing 26 years ago:
There is no decision that would be justifiable for Labour to make in order to win power in a [...]
Nigel Farage has got himself some more oxygen by saying UKIP will take legal action if it is excluded from the TV debates at the next general election. The Independent’s report this morning has a panel by me (scroll down) on the party leader’s strengths and weaknesses in that format.
All good clean fun, but the [...]
What we do not know about yesterday’s local elections is how many UKIP voters will go, or go back, to the Conservatives when they are warned that a vote for Nigel Farage will let Ed Miliband into Downing Street.
But we can say this much. The early BBC estimates for the change in vote share in [...]
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