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A chance to slack off on austerity?, Chunomics

A chance to slack off on austerity?

If George Osborne had put the Bank of England in charge of compiling the Treasury’s output gap forecasts, he might have been going in to the next election promising even bigger spending cuts.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Thursday, 13 February 2014 at 4:44 pm

Did the Bank of England’s Forward Guidance work?, Chunomics

Did the Bank of England’s Forward Guidance work?

Around half of businesses understood Forward Guidance. But only 23% of households apparently took on board the Bank’s central message that rates would remain low for longer.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Wednesday, 12 February 2014 at 2:01 pm

Re-writing history on business investment forecasts, Chunomics

Re-writing history on business investment forecasts

If Mark Carney really thinks it was “unreasonable” to expect business investment to play a part in driving the recovery, he should have a word with his own forecasting team.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Tuesday, 10 December 2013 at 5:30 pm

The Bank of England shows us what we could have won, Chunomics

The Bank of England shows us what we could have won

Like Jim Bowen The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street is showing us what would have happened if the financial markets had taken its “lower for longer” message on interest rates more fully to heart.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Friday, 22 November 2013 at 2:03 pm

The Bank of England gives up on independence from America, Chunomics

The Bank of England gives up on independence from America

In November’s Inflation Report, published today, the Bank appears to throw up its hands in despair over the UK-US short-term interest rate synchronisation.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Wednesday, 13 November 2013 at 1:36 pm

Why the Bank of England should target wages as well as unemployment, Chunomics

Why the Bank of England should target wages as well as unemployment

While rate increases should be some way off yet, improvements in a range of economic indicators mean that ever more attention is set to shift towards the question of how and when monetary policy tightens. While calls for action are likely to build, the avoidance of premature movement will be vital.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Wednesday, 6 November 2013 at 1:57 pm

Let’s stop talking about a housing bubble. The property market is more dysfunctional than that, Chunomics

Let’s stop talking about a housing bubble. The property market is more dysfunctional than that

I suspect that what most people are getting at when they ask whether we are seeing a bubble or not is something different. What they really mean is: are houses too expensive?

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Monday, 28 October 2013 at 12:15 pm

Counterfactuals won’t help the Bank this time, Chunomics

Counterfactuals won’t help the Bank this time

If Threadneedle Street thought traders’ expectation of rate rises were “not warranted” in July it’s going to be tricky for the Bank to label expectations of an even more rapid rise warranted now.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Tuesday, 10 September 2013 at 11:22 am

Martin Weale: NGDP target is playing with fire, Chunomics

Martin Weale: NGDP target is playing with fire

Here’s the transcript of my interview with Martin Weale of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. The write-up will be published in The Independent tomorrow morning.
Highlights:
1) Warns that NGDP target likely to prove inflationary; emphasises practical problems of implementing
2) Says that QE “certainly not parked”
3) Sees no evidence that fiscal multipliers have been higher [...]

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Wednesday, 30 January 2013 at 7:28 pm

Make bankers wait longer for the bonuses, Chunomics

Make bankers wait longer for the bonuses

The justification for deferring bonuses is to incentivise bankers to take more care over the risks they take. What this research shows is that a three-year delay just isn’t long enough to perform this job.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Tuesday, 4 December 2012 at 12:52 pm

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