Three points about the 2015 general election result.
1. Members of Parliament
Conservative 331, Labour 232, SNP 56, Lib Dem 8, DUP 8, Others 11. Sinn Fein (do not take their seats) 4.
Sky News says Conservative 330, but this is because it excludes the Speaker. It makes more sense to include him in the Conservative total (see [...]
The Independent on Sunday last weekend published the results of Iain Dale’s seat-by-seat assessment of likely outcomes at the general election.
Two weekends before, we published a Poll of Pollsters, aggregating the predictions, where they were prepared to make them, of the 10 bosses of the active polling companies in Great Britain.
The weekend before that, I [...]
One or two comrades have yet to catch up with my Four-Square Rule, which is that the Conservatives need to be four points ahead in percentage share of the vote to be the largest party in the election next year. As I said on Sunday, that, rather than the point at which the Tories simply [...]
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