I have in the past been at the unexciteable end of the market on UKIP’s impact on the next election. I am also generally sceptical about polls carried out in marginal seats: in the past, national polling and uniform swing has tended to be a better predictor of national outcomes. But the publication of the [...]
I wrote in The Independent on Sunday yesterday about predictions of the next election, again, prompted by the assertion by Nick Harvey, the Liberal Democrat MP (pictured), that “Labour has already won.”
One of the axioms on which he builds this fallacy is this: “It’s very difficult to see why anyone would vote Tory next time who [...]
Labour has increased its lead in The Independent on Sunday’s monthly opinion poll, shared with the Sunday Mirror and conducted by ComRes, but more than half of voters (53%) say that they cannot imagine Ed Miliband as prime minister.
Con 29% (-3)
Lab 35% (0)
UKIP 17% (+1)
LibDem 10% (+1)
Others 9% (+1)
Labour’s lead is up three points since [...]
We have a ComRes opinion poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror. As well as voting intention – it will be interesting to see if the pattern of increased Labour leads in other recent polls is repeated – we asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following statements.
Sir John [...]
David Cameron’s “problem with women voters” – widely reported two years ago – was based on a misreading of opinion polls, according to new research. At the time, the Prime Minister was criticised for telling Angela Eagle, the Labour frontbencher, to “calm down, dear”, and for joking that Nadine Dorries, a Tory backbencher, was “extremely frustrated”. Yvette [...]
I return to the subject of “iron laws” in politics in my column in The Independent on Sunday today. For all those who so enjoyed the Electoral Calculus chart, which I used, with permission, a while ago, here is an update.
This, the most complicated chart that is actually quite useful, plots the opinion-poll ratings of [...]
In our ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday yesterday, we experimented with split samples to compare people’s responses to statements that named the two largest parties with responses to those that named David Cameron and Ed Miliband.
First we asked half the sample: If they were in government, which party would you trust most to… [...]
David Cameron’s two big problems in renegotiating the terms of British membership of the EU, if he wins the election, are: 1. How to get “ever closer union” out of the EU Treaty; and 2. How to make it look as if he has curbed open immigration from other member states.
YouGov’s poll for The Sunday [...]
Labour’s lead has narrowed to three points in a poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror – the lowest for 19 months in a ComRes online poll.
Con 32% (+4)
Lab 35% (-1)
UKIP 16% (-1)
We have a ComRes opinion poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror.
It will be interesting to see if it suggests that the Labour lead is narrowing or disappearing as other polls have.
We have asked questions about which of the two major parties, and which of the two party leaders, is [...]
Latest from Independent journalists on Twitter