It is possible that by 25 May the Clinton-Obama drama will be resolved and we will have a Democrat nominee for 2008. (I stress possible, depending partly on what happens next Tuesday.) If so, political junkies will not need to despair thanks to the cable network HBO which on that date will release Recount, a film starring Kevin Spacey, Dennis Leary, Tom Wilkinson and Laura Dern about another not so distant episode of high anxiety (and, for some, pure despair) in American presidential politics.
If I mention hanging chads, the Supreme Court and Florida, you will know which one I mean.
There was a collective sigh of relief among Democrats here in North Carolina and across the country after Obama finally stuck it to the showboating Reverend. There is now mounting evidence that he is close to winning the "invisible primary" of superdelegates provided he doesn't trip up again.
In the process Obama appears to have persuaded a majority of elected superdelegates on Capitol Hill to back him. Most are waiting for the primary season to end on 3 June before declaring however. But the writing seems to be on the wall for the Clinton campaign which is now preparing to fold its tent in mid June, it is whispered.
He has been so quiet we almost forgot he was still out there, but finally Michael Dukakis, the '88 Democratic nominee (hapless eventually, if you remember) has offered some thoughts on the tug of war that knows no end between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. If he doesn't actually spell out who should win the nomination, he does make pretty plain which of the two he thinks is most likely to.
His answer, dropped during an interview at his Brookline home (just outside Boston) to the New York Observer does not carry the initials HRC but rather BO. "All I can tell you is at this point it looks as if he is likely to be the nominee," he tells the newspaper. He adds that it will surely be all over for Hillary if the man from Illinois scores a double whammy in North Carolina and Indiana next week. (Polls tonight show them pretty much neck and neck in the latter and Obama holding a healthy-ish but narrowing advantage in North Carolina.)
Last week The Boss jumped on board the "celebrities for Obama" swift-boat, now Roger Waters is getting involved too. Last night as he played a closing set at the Coachella festival in California, he released a giant inflatable pig - the pig being a staple prop of Pink Floyd since it appeared on the cover of their 1977 album Animals - with "Obama" emblazoned on its underside...
So appalling was some of Hillary's behaviour in the Pennsylvania primary that the New York Times - which still endorses her - described her triumph as "The Low Road to Victory".
The six-week long campaign had plenty of in the gutter moments, not least Hillary's emasculation of Obama before Pennsylvania's angry white males. But there were some benefits to the campaign. One included bringing to national prominence Philadelphia's articulate and bright new mayor Michael Nutter. Black and hugely popular, Nutter remained as steadfast supporter of Hillary throughout the campaign, despite the fact that his city voted overwhelmingly for Obama.
There are killer sandwiches in Philadelphia, candidate killers that is. Remember John Kerry back in 2004 asking for Swiss cheese instead of the Philly favourite "cheez whiz" on his cheesesteak sandwich. He was mocked as an effete snob on the talk shows that Joe and Jill Sixpack listen to from one end of the country. (Kerry was right; by the way the "cheeze whizz" sandwiches are disgusting). But the story, along with the famous photograph of Kerry on a windsurfer did more to damage him than all the infamous Swift Boat attacks by the Republicans. Today there is another Philly sandwich war going on. This time it's between the Clinton and Obama camps at Di Bruno bros famous deli on Chestnut Street.
I'm in Philadelphia, scene of the Rocky, the 1976 film, where the small-time street fighter Rocky Balboa survives 15 rounds with the undefeated World heavyweight champion Apollo Creed. As they go to the polls in Pennsylvania in what seems like the 15th round of a bruising world title fight, everyone wants to know is whether Hillary has finally found Obama's glass jaw and is about to knock him out of the race. A split decision means big trouble for her, given the high expectations that she was going to win Pennsylvania by more than 10 percentage points.
Chick's Diner is a Scranton landmark and its full-on for Hillary. All chrome, red piping and bustling waitresses, Edward Hopper could have painted Nighthawks, his famous painting of customers sitting at the counter of an all night diner, here. This diner is always full by seven in the morning and it stays open 24 hours a day. It's the best listening post in town and on the eve of the primary all the talk in this greasy spoon is about Hillary's pending victory, at least in Scranton.
Lori, my platinum blonde waitress just cannot conceive of a president named Obama. "I just can't see it," she said, to a chorus of approval from the old timers at the counter. "And then when you realise his middle name is Hussein," she said, "No, I don't think so."
Scranton, Pennsylvania is ground zero for Hillary as she tries to keep her presidential hopes alive. Her supporters were out in force this morning, packing into a Scottish Rite Masonic Hall that is now a ballroom to hear her final pep talk. Obama's supporters were out in force the night before.
A huge jump in the number of Democratic voter registrations across Pennsylvania bodes well for Obama as he continues to eat into Hillary's lead. Its an expectations game now and if he deny's her a double digit victory he will have robbed her of the knockout margin she desperately needs to justofy staying in the primary battle. Expect to hear a chorus of calls for her to pull out if she does not achieve a crushing victory.
"I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect," says Obama. Listen to the (audio).
The Pennsylvania race is incredibly tight with a poll released Sunday showing Clinton's leading Obama by 48 to 43 percentage points with eight percent still undecided. Could Obama pull it off against all the odds?
That's what his organisers secretly believe, although they are playing down expectations in the media. Over a slice of pizza at Lancaster train station where the candidate had just given a speech on his train trip across the state, one of his top Pennsylvania operatives, who prefers to remain anonymous, was confident of victory or a worst a narrow defeat. He described how team Obama had been operating "below the radar" in Hillary's heartland of central Pennsylvania for over six weeks and had "registered the *!@*# out of the place."
The Jed Report which helped bring to light Hillary Clinton's "snipers in Tuzla" problem has a new three-minute "trailer" that is already breaking records for the number of times it has been viewed. Consisting of old archival footage of
Clinton backing the NAFTA trade agreement (now she's against it) and telling stretchers about Tuzla as well as Iraq and then complaining that Obama is "elitist." The most damaging stuff comes from Hillary's own mouth.
Sitting in the media room inside National Constitutional Center in the historic district of Philly waiting for tonight's debate between Hillary and Barack to begin. It's nearly seven weeks since they were last on stage together (and I was similarly waiting) in a much chillier Cleveland, Ohio. Best I can remember that turned out to 0-0 draw more or less. Hillary, of course, went on to win that state by 10 points.
A few more numbers in no particular order of insignificance. Tonight's debate will be the 20th in 15 months of full-out campaigning between Democrats. There may or may not be one more in North Carolina on 27 April. Hillary says she will be there (NC votes on 6 May) while Barack has not said if he will play.
Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News has an important interview with Barack Obama in which he asked whether an Obama
administration would seek to prosecute Bush
administration officials for their role in encouraging torture. The questions were prompted by a recent report by ABC News
that high-level White House officials including
Vice President Dick Cheney and former Cabinet secretaries Colin Powell,
John Ashcroft and Donald Rumsfeld, met in the White House
to discuss waterboarding and other torture techniques on suspects.
To his credit Obama said that as president he would indeed ask his Attorney General to "immediately review the
information that's already there" and determine if an inquiry is
warranted - but he also worried that
such an investigation could be turned into "a partisan witch hunt". If willful criminality is found, all bets are off Obama said, because "nobody
is above the law".
You might think that - of all people - the chairman of the Associated Press would have the name of the democratic frontrunner down pat. In Washington today the AP chairman Dean Singleton asked Barack Obama whether he would send more troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, where the Taliban is gaining strength - and "Obama bin Laden" is still at large.
The room, packed with journalists, fell quiet as everyone wondered if they had really heard what they thought they'd heard. Obama certainly did and after pausing a moment, he smiled and said "I think that was OSAMA bin Laden." Singleton covered his face in shame as he said: "If I did that, I'm so sorry!"
To which Obama deadpanned: "This is part of the exercise that I've been going through over the last 15 months, which is why it's pretty impressive I'm still standing here." Thunderous applause followed at the discomfort of the AP boss.
Hillary Clinton was quick to speak out against China's crackdown in Tibet, urging President Bush to boycott the Olympics opening ceremony. Her noble position is undercut somewhat by husband Bill's relationship with Alibaba, the Chinese Internet giant. Alibaba now owns Yahoo! China and as might be expected it closely hews to Beijing's line. Recently it carried a "most wanted" posting on its homepage urging readers to rat on Tibetan activists involved the recent riots in Lhasa.
John McCain is a bit like the Duracell Bunny who never stops turning up. While the two leading Democrats engage in a death spiral over the nomination, McCain is traveling the country on his Straight Talk Express, getting to places most Republicans rarely venture, like the inner city and heavily black areas of the Deep South. It’s a tour the likes of which no Republican nominee has taken on before. Here are some clips, first on Letterman (where he announced his run for the Presidency) and then on the back of his bus in footage taken last year:
For a candidate so intent on bridging the political and social divides in America, Barack Obama has sometimes seemed oddly deaf to the gay and lesbian community. Mark Segal, publisher of the Philadelphia Gay News, became so infuriated by his inabilty to secure an audience with Obama he left part of the front page of his latest issue blank - white space where the interview would have appeared. It was a good tweak - and it seems to have worked.
Mark Penn was in damage control mode Monday, despite getting severely kicked as a hypocrite on cable TV by Obama's strategist David Axelrod (see video), hosting a conference call with managing directors of Burson Marsteller - the British owned PR firm for which he is "Worldwide CEO" trying to persuade them that the media meltdown following his resignation would soon pass. The Huffington Post has the scoop as their reporter listened into 25 minutes of he phone call. Penn made clear that his resignation is really a dodge. This was always in the cards as he is extremely close to Hillary. "I think you've heard that I made the decision to step down as chief strategist of the Clinton campaign. Penn Schoen and Berland (his polling company) is going to continue to poll for it and I'll continue to play a role advising Senator Clinton and former President Clinton as well as the rest of the leadership of the campaign," he said.
That's what film director Spike Lee will tell anyone asking whether the Democratic nomination should - against all the odds - be Hillary Clinton's. More pertinently, that's what he has told the latest issue of New York Magazine. Should we surprised that Spike is fired up about Barack Obama? Guess not, but he does admit that he was once a Clinton groupie.
The hilarious campaign slogan, "In an Absolut World", showed a 1830s-era map when Mexico included California, Texas and other southwestern states. Many Americans already feel their country is being taken over by Hispanics and it is also the case that these underpaid and often abused workers keep the US economy ticking over.
Mexico still seethes at the loss of that territory in the 1848 Mexican-American War and the fight for Texas independence. The annexation of Mexican territory isn't something Americans generally feel comfortable talking about. But seeing the ad on various blogs was a red rag to a bull and a campaign was quickly whipped up which could have damaged Absolut's bottom line.
At a time when the Repubicans are gearing up to make "illegal" immigration a major issue in the election and with the Bush Administration pressing ahead with building its famous fence across the wilderness, Absolut Vodka has redrawn the map of North America to show what Mexicans think of all the gringo antics.
This is the sort of video that drives the Clintonistas nuts. OK it's schmaltzy, and the kid is precocious, but it tells a story of how young Americans are being swept up in the cult of Obama.
Spreading like wildfire across the internet is the news that Jane Fonda has endorsed Obama for president. This wont help Obama with the Republicans who detest "Hanoi Jane" who showed up at a North Vietnamese anti-aircraft battery in June 1972 singing an anti-war songs, while John McCain was trussed up and being tortured nearby.
Fonda was out at dinner and as she exited a video camera was rolling. Someone shouted out "Who are you going to vote for?"
After a moment of silence, the activist actress turned to the cameras, smiled and said said, "Obama".
Hillary has launched another of her famous 3 A.M ads, but this one is directed at McCain who, by his own admission, is clueless about economics. Whats really going on here, it seems is that Hillary is trying to draw attention away from Obama whom she is telling anyone who will listen, has no chance of winning the election.
ABC News' George Stephanopoulos says she told Bill Richardson before he endorsed Obama: "He cannot win, Bill. He cannot win."
"It was as if someone pulled the pin from a grenade," is how the San Francisco Chronicle described the moment someone asked Bill Clinton about Bill Richardson's defection to the Obama camp. During a meeting with superdelegates, Rachel Binah, who supports Hillary, told Bill how "sorry" she was that his old campaign manager James Carville had called call Richardson a "Judas" for backing Obama.
Obama dropped some heavy hints about his closeness to Al Gore today saying they talk all the time and he would give him a Cabinet-level position or higher at the drop of a hat. It all started at a "town hall" meeting in Pennsylvania when a woman asked Obama if he would use the former VEEP to drive a new policy on global warming.
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